Whether it's talks or war, we'll suffer all the same

US president Donald Trump has sent Iran’s leader a letter, we’re told, and that it’s significant. It probably is, but nobody I know seems to think so.

"They keep saying Iran is at a crossroads. Is it really a crossroads if it drags on for years? Because we’ve been here as far as I can remember.” This is Zahra, 36, a legal consultant, almost snapping at me for bringing up this conversation.

"Trump has apparently told Khamenei to make a deal or get ready for war,” she carries on venting. “But I think he’ll dodge this one too, selling out even more to China and Russia, buying time, hanging in there at the so-called crossroads while we sink deeper in the swamp that he’s made.”

Zahra has stopped waiting for a turning point. And she’s not alone. Utter the words breakthrough in a Tehran taxi and you’ll get a bitter smile, if not a scornful look. Why talk or even think about it. As Zahra puts it, "it'll come when it comes."

For years, the government has pinned almost everything on sanctions—runaway inflation, energy shortages, environmental disasters, a failing healthcare system, you name it.

But many have long stopped buying that narrative. They’ve watched billions vanish in case after case of corruption, most involving officials and cronies that somehow always avoid justice.

"I cannot care less about sanctions,” says Mehdi, a salesman turned Snapp driver. “My children suffer with or without sanctions. And the officials’ children thrive with or without sanctions.”

Mehdi is 45, a father of two. His apathy may not help his country’s situation, he says, but at least it helps keep him sane. “I have to have my hands on this fifteen hours a day, six days a week, to make ends meet,” he says, bashing the steering wheel, “so I have no time for love-hate letters between Trump and Khamenei.”

Khamenei’s famous line—neither war nor negotiations—has defined Iran’s foreign policy for years. His recent remarks follow the same logic.

Many in Tehran believe this anti-talks position is why the face of Iranian diplomacy abroad, former foreign minister Javad Zarif, had to resign his role as vice president.

Zarif and his boss, president Masoud Pezeshkian, are clearly in favor of dialogue with the Trump administration, which puts them at odds with Khamenei even if they express their full allegiance at every turn.

Despite widespread apathy, many voted for Pezeshkian because they felt his moderate politics would increase the likelihood of a thaw with the West and potentially less sanctions that could improve their dire economic fortunes.

“If sanctions are lifted, foreign investment will return, and jobs will be created,” says Milad, a 20-year-old undergraduate and a first-time voter for Pezeshkian who sees himself in the minority.

“Most people I know prefer no talks, not because they back Khamenei, but because they hate his guts and think a thaw would help him last longer,” Milad adds. “I think they’re wrong though. Khamenei & co. would do just fine. It’s us who’ll shoulder Trump's maximum pressure.”

Milad thinks talks could potentially lead to less sanctions and improved life. But not many share his view, as he said. That flicker of hope that drove some people to polling stations last year is well and truly dead now.

Majid, a 28-year old street vendor, sums it up succinctly.

"My family was poor when oil money was pouring in, and we’re poor now with the harshest sanctions. We all work 50-60 hours a week just to survive. I can’t see how we’d get out of this."

The Islamic Republic has tied its survival to our destruction. Moderates or hardliners in government, during talks or at war, our suffering is constant," he added.

Majid’s grandfather, Akbar, interjects. He’s sitting on a stool next to his grandson to kill time, in his words.

“We’re screwed either way. So better not to have talks, I say. Any money would just fatten the bandits and thugs that rule us.” And Trump’s letter and ultimatum? “I don’t like bullies,” Akbar says smiling. “But we’re where we are because of Khamenei, not Trump.”

The grandfather may also be in the minority—of those who still follow the news religiously despite grudges. For a majority, as far as I can tell, Trump’s letter, Khamenei’s speeches, the latest threats and ultimatums barely register anymore.

People are exhausted. The news of war or negotiation causes only a brief ripple in the economic mire in which most people are trapped.

And the real question for most is, how much longer can we endure this?