Is Iran once again seeking Omani mediation with the US?

Tehran has denied that its foreign minister’s visit to Oman on Sunday was related to the US President’s letter to Iran's Supreme Leader. However, observers speculate that Tehran is seeking Muscat’s mediation.

President Donald Trump’s recent letter to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was delivered by former UAE Minister of State Anwar Gargash last week. Tehran, however, has not responded to the letter yet and seems unlikely to use the same diplomatic channel.

At a press briefing on Monday morning, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei dismissed a connection between Araghchi’s visit to Muscat and Trump’s letter and said the response to the letter “will be made through the appropriate channels after scrutiny is completed.” According to Baghaei, the contents of Trump’s letter will not be disclosed to the media.

Oman’s role in US-Iran diplomacy

In an interview with the government-run Iran newspaper after Khamenei’s public rejection of direct talks with Washington last week, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signaled Tehran's willingness to engage in indirect negotiations through Oman.

For over two decades, Iran has relied on Oman as an intermediary for indirect communications with Washington, despite the existence of a formal diplomatic channel through Switzerland.

However, some observers link Araghchi's visit to Oman to US air strikes on Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. Referring to the US airstrikes on Saturday, conservative political analyst Asghar Zarei in Iran told Quds daily that the threat of further escalation has necessitated “consultations and the exchange of messages through Oman.”

But at the same time, citing Abu Dhabi’s close political and military cooperation with Israel and the West, Zarei further argued that Iran would not entrust the delivery of its response to Trump's letter to the UAE.

“Oman … has always shown its willingness to play an active role in regional issues, including the Syrian issue, and mediation between Iran and other powers,” the same daily quoted West Asia analyst Reza Sadrolhosseini as saying.

Some analysts also consider Baghdad and Doha as potential but much less likely alternatives for diplomatic exchanges between Tehran and Washington.

Iran's response to Trump

Trump sent another letter to Khamenei in 2019, after unilaterally withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal but Khamenei refused to accept the letter, delivered by then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and insisted that Trump was untrustworthy.

The Iranian foreign minister’s meeting with his Omani counterpart, according to both sides, focused on bilateral relations and the latest regional and international developments. In a statement, Oman’s foreign ministry also emphasized the country's commitment to facilitating diplomatic solutions and easing regional tensions through dialogue and peaceful means.

Former President Barack Obama reportedly sent multiple letters to Khamenei between 2009 and 2015, discussing topics such as diplomacy, the nuclear deal (JCPOA), and potential cooperation against ISIS. There are no reports that Khamenei ever responded in writing to any of these letters. This time, however, as indicated by the foreign ministry's spokesman, a written response, possibly through Muscat, seems to be very likely.

Araghchi’s visit and the Yemeni situation

Some Iranian media and analysts have highlighted a possible connection between Trump’s most recent threats against Iran, the US airstrikes on Yemen, and Araghchi’s visit to Oman.

A commentary published on Monday by the reformist Ham-Mihan daily referred to Trump’s warning that supporting Houthis will not be tolerated and argued that by these airstrikes he aimed to demonstrate to Iran that there are only two options on the table: negotiation or military action, as in Yemen's case. Iran denies control over Houthis and has condemned the US strikes.

“The only thing that Iran does not need now is a new crisis,” the commentary said while suggesting that Iran should stay fully focused on the resolution of its nuclear program.