As fatalities from methanol-laced alcohol continue under the Islamic Republic's prohibition, several experts are casting doubt on the Iranian authorities' narrative that these deaths are merely isolated incidents.

Year after year, the sale of bootleg alcohol in Iran has remained a persistent crisis, with at least thousands of Iranians falling victim to poisonings.

According to Iranian medical authorities, 768 people were poisoned by methanol-laced alcohol in just one month in 2018, resulting in 96 deaths across eight of Iran’s 31 provinces.

More recently, in the first 10 days of October, 343 people were poisoned, with 41 deaths reported in the provinces of Mazandaran, Gilan, Hamedan, and Kurdistan.

Alcohol has been banned in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with consumption, production, or sale of alcoholic beverages punishable by imprisonment, flogging, or fines. Repeat offenders can even face the death penalty. Despite this, alcohol consumption continues, with both imported and homemade drinks readily available on the black market.

This week, the state's judiciary oversaw the execution of four people, over the purported sale of alcoholic beverages laced with methanol.

Iranian authorities have labeled this incident -- and previous ones -- as a profit-driven criminal operation. The judiciary echoed that characterization, saying that the individuals executed on Wednesday intentionally sold methanol-laced alcohol for financial gain.

The judiciary-controlled Mizan outlet reported that the individuals involved "purchased methanol at one-eighth of the market price of ethanol and sold it at approximately one-third of the market rate."

That narrative was repeated by the hardline newspaper Iran, which quoted a clinical toxicology expert as saying, "No seller or ‘dealer’ deliberately endangers their customers, but when profits and higher income are at stake, such incidents become unavoidable."

However, some experts question whether this is merely a matter of greed or if more complex motives are at play.

According to Dr. Maziar Ashrafian Bonab, a PhD graduate from Cambridge University, the nature of these poisoning cases defies the notion of a random or accidental occurrence. Speaking in an interview with Iran International, he said:

"We expect to see a uniform spread of deaths across the country due to the occasional use of counterfeit alcohol. But the data reveals concentrated spikes in specific provinces at certain times, which suggests a more organized and deliberate effort rather than random errors."

Dr. Bonab, a former Director General of the Forensic Medicine Center of Iran’s Hormozgan Province, said that while small-scale producers might inadvertently mix methanol into their products, the scale and coordination of these poisoning incidents point to larger networks with access to industrial alcohol or methanol. He further argued that it's unlikely that those selling counterfeit alcohol would intentionally poison their customers:

"If anything, poisoning your customers would harm your business in the long run. This doesn’t seem like a profit-driven mistake but rather a more sinister act."

When asked who might be behind these incidents, Dr. Bonab hypothesized that some organizations involved in methanol production could be connected to powerful state institutions:

"There is reason to believe that those responsible have access to large quantities of industrial methanol, which isn’t easily available to small producers. Some of these operations could involve pharmaceutical companies or other institutions with government links. I have even heard rumors that certain networks, possibly tied to powerful entities, may be behind these poisonings, operating with a level of impunity."

The former aide to Iran's Health Ministry also highlighted the involvement of "fire-at-will" groups—radical elements that act independently or with implicit approval from factions within the government:

"Some of these groups believe it’s their duty to impose their ideological beliefs on society, even if it means using lethal force. They see alcohol consumption as a vice and might be deliberately targeting consumers."

The so-called moderate outlet Etemad similarly highlighted these suspicions in a recent report, featuring addiction specialists and alcohol distributors who questioned the scale and coordination of the methanol poisonings.

An anonymous addiction specialist from Gilan Province suggested the incidents indicate more than just a technical error:

"When poisonings occur simultaneously in four provinces, it becomes clear this goes beyond production issues. Even if deliberate poisoning is assumed, it’s unlikely that four different producers in separate provinces would simultaneously produce tainted alcohol. This raises concerns that something more organized is at play."

Likewise, Ali Salarian, an addiction specialist from Mazandaran Province and a member of the National Medical Council, echoed these concerns, stressing that the scope and frequency suggest something far more deliberate than a mere production error:

"Food and drink poisonings, whether legal or illegal, are usually due to isolated technical errors. But given the scale and impact of these cases, it’s clear this is not accidental. Malicious intent seems likely."

Etemad also spoke to an anonymous producer of alcoholic beverages to address the theory of rivalry-driven revenge between sellers.

The source dismissed this notion, saying, "This isn’t the work of a typical vendor. A vendor is someone who has been producing and selling for years, building a reputation for their product. They know they’re operating outside the law, as alcohol production and sales are illegal in Iran, but they’re not murderers".

"While there are dangerous criminals in the alcohol trade, none would kill their customers to outcompete others. Their livelihoods depend on keeping their customers, not eliminating them," he added.

Etemad also pointed to a past pattern, stating, "Years ago, similar incidents occurred in some provinces, where a specific group deliberately inflicted severe, irreversible physical harm on certain citizens, but the identity of these individuals was never revealed to the public."

While Etemad doesn’t specify which incidents they are referring to, it appeared to draw parallels to the school poisonings during the 2022 nationwide protests against the state -- dubbed the Woman, Life, Freedom movement.

These poisonings, which primarily affected girls' schools across Iran, began during the protests and continued until April 2023. Schoolgirls experienced symptoms like shortness of breath and lethargy.

Initially dismissed by authorities as "children's pranks" or attributed to faulty heating, the government later admitted that at least 1,200 students had been affected by mysterious fumes.

At the time, suspicions pointed toward hardliners or religious extremists, possibly punishing girls for speaking out during the protests. Other activists described the poisonings as "state terrorism" and "gender-based" -- pointing the finger at state authorities citing the organized scale of the attacks.